April 30, 2011 by Joseph Krohn
- The Conservatives are currently polling at 36.85% and given that the Tories usually increase in their vote percentage on election night we could carry that up to 39%.
- The Liberals are at 24.1% and given that election night usually finds them decreasing in their vote percentage, they probably will find themselves closer to 23%.
- The NDP are polling higher than the Liberals at 25.1%.
- The Bloc are polling at 7.1%.
- The Green Party is at 5.7%.
- The remainder of the vote percentage would be divided up among the smaller parties and the independents.
I plugged these percentage numbers into the Hill and Knowlton Projection model and here is my projection based on the above:
Government: Conservative Party – 157 (majority of 2 seats and increase of 14 seats)
Official Opposition: Liberal Party – 62 seats (a reduction of 15 seats)
The New Democratic Party – 55 seats (up from 37 seats)
Bloc – 34 seats (down from 48 seats)