My Projection (although it may be a little hopeful…)

1

April 30, 2011 by Joseph Krohn

  • The Conservatives are currently polling at 36.85% and given that the Tories usually increase in their vote percentage on election night we could carry that up to 39%.
  • The Liberals are at 24.1% and given that election night usually finds them decreasing in their vote percentage, they probably will find themselves closer to 23%.
  • The NDP are polling higher than the Liberals at 25.1%.
  • The Bloc are polling at 7.1%.
  • The Green Party is at 5.7%.
  • The remainder of the vote percentage would be divided up among the smaller parties and the independents.

I plugged these percentage numbers into the Hill and Knowlton Projection model and here is my projection based on the above:

Government: Conservative Party – 157 (majority of 2 seats and increase of 14 seats)

Official Opposition: Liberal Party – 62 seats (a reduction of 15 seats)

The New Democratic Party – 55 seats (up from 37 seats)

Bloc – 34 seats (down from 48 seats)

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One thought on “My Projection (although it may be a little hopeful…)

  1. Joseph Krohn says:

    See other blogger’s predictions on my link page.

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