February 14, 2011 by Joseph Krohn
The Ekos Research poll, February 4-9, 2011. suggests that the Conservatives are approaching majority territory. With this poll, the Conservatives would win 22 seats in British Columbia, 28 in Alberta, 20 in the Prairies, 62 in Ontario, nine in Quebec, and nine in Atlantic Canada for a total of 151. That’s 8 more than the 2008 federal election (143 seats).
The seat projection places the Conservatives at 151 seats, 4 short of a majority government. Perhaps 4 MP’s could be bought?
The Liberals with 24.8% would give the Liberals 83 seats (an increase of 6).
The NDP with 14.2% would receive only 20 seats (a decrease of 16 seats).
The Block with 9.9% of the popular vote would give them 54 seats (an increase of 7 seats).
It seems that the left is in serious trouble. The Liberals are down in the polls. The NDP are down in the polls. Their combined projected seat count would be 103, down 10 from their 2008 combined totals. The Liberals have been losing ground steadily to the Conservatives over the recent months. The Liberal’s projected seat count is only potentially increasing at the expense of the NDP. By enlarge the left is in a steady retreat. This would suggest to the voters that Mr. Ignatieff can’t truly be serious about attempting to bring down the government over the March 2011 budget. If he is that “careless,” it would seem that Mr. Layton surely is not willing to sacrifice almost half of his caucus just so the Liberals can have their month in the sun.
The Conservatives may very well be on the pathway to a majority government. The next several weeks will tell us how bold Mr. Ignatieff really is and then he will get to see what Canadians really think about him. Yes, perhaps a majority government in on the menu for 2011.